American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
(pp. 124–57)
Abstract
Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change. (JEL D72, E23, E32, O11, O17, O47)Citation
Burke, Paul J., and Andrew Leigh. 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?" American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2 (4): 124–57. DOI: 10.1257/mac.2.4.124Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O47 Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence