Issues in Applied Macroeconomics & Finance
Paper Session
Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)
- Chair: Aparna Anand, Columbia University
Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Markets: Evidence from Global Contagion
Abstract
We investigate the impact of Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent government policy responses on international stock market contagion. Local infection and mortality rates increase the likelihood of contagion, mortality rates demonstrating a greater impact. Economic support policies mitigate stock market contagion, yet their effects vary by country in terms of timing and intensity. For developing nations, global infections and deaths have a more substantial effect on the likelihood of contagion, whereas, for advanced nations, local cases exert a stronger influence. Our results guide governments and international policymakers to contain contagion and alleviate the impact of exogenous shocks worldwide.What Happens to Listed Firms After They Obtain Costly Shadow Loans?
Abstract
Despite the recent proliferation of shadow loans to listed firms globally, their impact on firm outcomes is yet to be fully explored. This paper therefore uses a loan transactions dataset from China to identify firms that use shadow loans excessively (shadow-bank firms). Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach, we show that shadow bank firms experience a higher default probability and lower profitability, productivity, investment, and employment growth after acquiring shadow loans. However, more productive and technology-intensive firms do not face similar adverse outcomes after obtaining such shadow loans. Since shadow loans are more costly than bank loans, shadow-bank dependent firms that fail to generate sufficient returns face adverse outcomes.Just Energy Transition in India: Policy Modelling and Implementation
Abstract
The coal sector directly and indirectly employs millions of workers and supports several coal-dependent regions. Any abrupt shift risks exacerbating unemployment, economic disparities, and social tensions. Consequently, a just transition in India must prioritise inclusive growth, retraining programs, and the creation of alternative livelihoods for affected populations.While renewable energy targets, such as achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, reflect the country’s commitment to a low-carbon future, the socio-economic implications of transitioning from over 62 per cent dependence on coal need improvement.
Policy frameworks in operation for India’s energy transition, including the National Electricity Plan, Renewable Energy Policy, and coal sector reforms and state-level initiatives in coal-rich regions such as Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha, must improve labour rights.
After examining energy trends, quantitative data and numerical examples of energy transition, insights from a dynamic CGE model with sectoral and institutional foundations of the relative price of renewables and fossil fuels and ultimatum game analyses lead to a roadmap to just energy transition for higher economic growth, emissions reduction, and energy affordability for all.
Commodity Price Shocks and Non-Performing Assets in the Indian Banking Sector
Abstract
Non-performing assets in the Indian banking sector increased significantly inthe 2010s, accompanied by a slowdown in credit and GDP growth rates. In this
paper, we show that non-performing assets in the banking sector and profit ratios
in commodity-sensitive non-financial sectors are highly correlated with global
commodity prices. To estimate the effect of movement in commodity prices on
non-performing assets, we create nominal price and inflation exposure indices for
banks using novel data on banks’ sectoral exposure and commodity prices. These
measures capture banks’ exposure to commodity prices through their borrowers’
profitability and cash flow and act as income shocks for banks. Results from a
range of models suggest that a 1% decline in nominal exposure increases nonperforming
assets by 0.20-1.35% and these models explain 30% of the increase in
non-performing assets. Since public sector banks in general had higher exposure to
commodity-sensitive sectors, they experienced a relatively higher decline in nominal
exposure and a more significant rise in non-performing assets after the price crash
of the 2010s. The increase in non-performing assets is followed by a decrease in
credit growth. These results help us in understanding the origins of India’s twin
balance sheet crises of the 2010s.
Time Gains, Empowerment and Mental Health - Role of Improved Access to Water
Abstract
We conducted a study across rural areas of three districts in the state of Tamil Nadu, where we sought to examine these outcomes, particularly the link between water access, time gains and empowerment among rural women. The main objectives of the study were the following: (1) What type of HH experience time gains under increased access to piped water? (2) Do those time gains increase women’s labor force participation, school performance of the children due (3) to increased educational investments? (4) Does mental health of women improve under better access to water?Evidence suggests that lack of access to a critical resource such as water can cause a considerable
amount of stress among households. In water scarce areas or among households whose principal
source of water lies outside their household premises, water collection is typically perceived as a
gendered activity, with the time burden of collecting water inevitably falling on women and girls
of the household. The impacts of water insecurity on women are wide-ranging: it affects their
everyday life, household dynamics and social relationships; it affects the school attendance and
academic performance of girl children. Women also face gender-based violence during the
commute for water collection which has an adverse impact on their mental health.
JEL Classifications
- E0 - General
- G0 - General