Journal of Economic Literature
ISSN 0022-0515 (Print) | ISSN 2328-8175 (Online)
Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?
Journal of Economic Literature
(pp. 907–49)
Abstract
We consider why fertility has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries. We begin by documenting declining total fertility and rising childlessness across cohorts, highlighting the need to focus on cohort versus period-specific fertility rates. With this motivation, we propose a conceptual model of fertility determination that augments the standard Becker model with an explicit role for social norms and cohort-specific contextual factors, including broad social and economic influences and an expanded set of consumption and lifestyle options. We posit that these forces have led to "shifting priorities," reducing the centrality of parenthood. We then review existing empirical evidence and conclude that the decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure consistent with our cohort-based conceptual framework. We conclude with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.Citation
Kearney, Melissa S., and Phillip B. Levine. 2026. "Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?" Journal of Economic Literature 64 (3): 907–49. DOI: 10.1257/jel.20261786Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- J16 Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
- J18 Demographic Economics: Public Policy
- J22 Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- Z13 Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification