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  3. 2026
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  5. New Developments in Economic Statistics
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New Developments in Economic Statistics

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)

Philadelphia Convention Center, 202-A
Hosted By: American Economic Association & Committee on Economic Statistics
  • Chair: Karen Dynan, Harvard University

Measuring the Early 2020s Immigration Surge

Wendy Edelberg
,
Brookings Institution
Tara Watson
,
Brookings Institution
Christopher Foote
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Jed Kolko
,
Peterson Institute

Abstract

Perhaps the biggest challenge for economic measurement during the last few years has
been quantifying the recent increase in immigration across the southern US border. Immi-
gration featured prominently in the presidential election of 2024, and recent news stories
have described the challenges encountered by several large cities as they tried to absorb new
immigrants. But although it was easy to sense that immigration had increased, it was much
harder to count the immigrants crossing the border and estimate how many of them had
started working here. Over time, however, the economic policy community came to realize
that the surge had a first-order effect on the US economy; by some accounts, immigration
doubled the trend rate of growth of labor supply in 2023 and 2024. This paper discusses Congressional Budget Office and Census Bureau estimates of the recent immigration surge, as well as implications of alternative estimates for measuring its labor-market implications.

Measuring Work from Home

Shelby R. Buckman
,
Stanford University
Nicholas Bloom
,
Stanford University
Jose Maria Barrero
,
Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Steven J. Davis
,
Hoover Institution

Abstract

Headline estimates for the extent of work from home (WFH) differ widely across U.S. surveys. The differences shrink greatly when we harmonize with respect to the WFH concept, target population, and question design. As of 2025, our preferred estimates say that WFH accounts for a quarter of paid workdays among Americans aged 20-64. The WFH rate is seven percentage points higher for workers with children under eight in the household and about two percentage points higher for women than men. Desired WFH rates exceed actual rates in every major demographic group -- more so for women, workers with young children, and less educated workers.

Manufacturing Services in NETS: What Do We Know?

Jane Dokko
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Abstract

This paper explores whether the National Establishment Time Series (NETS), a private sector longitudinal
data source of U.S. businesses, can enhance the measurement of manufacturing sector activities between
1997 and 2022, which was a period of intense deindustrialization in the U.S. Examining the properties of
the NETS data can be useful and complementary to official Census data on businesses, particularly for those who are not able to undergo a lengthy application and review process for accessing confidential data in a secure government facility. Specifically, the NETS assigns more than one Standard Industry Classification (SIC) code to establishments, in contrast to the statistical agencies’ singular assignment of a North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code based on the establishment’s or firm’s primary activity. Combining this additional information with linkages to parent headquarters allows me to analyze
the within-establishment and within-firm growth of services undertaken by manufacturers. I also examine
the growth in trade-related services among manufacturing firms and analyze the extent to which that growth attenuates manufacturing job losses at the establishment, firm, and regional levels. Lastly, NETS has detailed information on when and where establishments and firms move, which is useful for examining the regional patterns in the growth of trade-related services among manufacturers. The results from this paper
inform discussions about revitalizing the American manufacturing sector by offering more detailed
information about the reallocation of economic activity during a period of intense deindustrialization. A secondary contribution of this paper is to validate the properties of manufacturing firms observed in NETS to those in official government statistics so that there is more widespread understanding of the kinds of questions for which the NETS is suitable.

U.S. State-Level Business Cycles Since the Civil War

Chang (Charles) Liu
,
National University of Singapore
Joseph Hoon
,
National University of Singapore
Karsten Mueller
,
National University of Singapore
Zhongxi Zheng
,
National University of Singapore

Abstract

We present a novel dataset of 62 state-level macroeconomic time series for the United States, spanning from 1870 to the present, assembled by digitizing and harmonizing 135 historical sources. Using these data, we estimate an annual index of state-level economic activity over the past 150 years and validate it in a variety of ways. We document four facts. First, business cycles exhibit substantial heterogeneity across states, both historically and today. Second, the comovement of state business cycles has increased since World War II. Third, average state-level volatility has declined since the 1980s, but likely not much beforehand. Fourth, over a third of the recessions are state-specific rather than national, and such idiosyncratic downturns tend to be shorter and milder.

Discussant(s)
Kristin Butcher
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Jason Faberman
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Veronika Penciakova
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Jeremy Piger
,
University of Oregon
JEL Classifications
  • C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
  • E0 - General