American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
(pp. 106–34)
Abstract
Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the United States, I show that advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. Further, marginal benefits do not decrease with lead time. The benefits come from individual and institutional responses. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews intensify the road maintenance operations. These results have policy implications for providing effective forecasts.Citation
Anand, Vaibhav. 2025. "Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 17 (4): 106–34. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230247Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
- Q58 Environmental Economics: Government Policy
- R41 Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise