Journal of Economic Perspectives
ISSN 0895-3309 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7965 (Online)
Comment on Poirier: Dogma or Doubt?
Journal of Economic Perspectives
(pp. 153–158)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
[This paper responds to "Frequentist and Subjectivist Perspectives on the Problems of Model Building in Economics," by Dale J. Poirier, in this same issue.] Poirier appeals to the latent statistician that he hopes is lurking behind every economist. Like a good fundamentalist preacher he demands, "Do you believe in the Likelihood Principle?" As with most doctrines, we give it a quick glance and reply, "Amen, brother." From there on we are trapped and led inexorably, via the creed of the likelihood principle (LP), to the one true religion of Bayesianism. Before I begin my critique, let me compliment the preacher on his sermon. I doubt if one could find a more engaging, beguiling, or coherent account of the strengths of following the Bayesian methodology. Next I provide a personal testimony concerning what bothers me about the dogmas of the recommended religion.Citation
Pagan, Adrian. 1988. "Comment on Poirier: Dogma or Doubt?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 (1): 153–158. DOI: 10.1257/jep.2.1.153JEL Classification
- C11 Bayesian Analysis: General
- C50 Econometric Modeling: General
- D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making