2Q data is wrong (again) [poll]

Question

Well, the way economists calculate GDP is wrong. If Income is consisted of domestic consumption, exports, less imports, because the money got by exports is spent into the internal economy. It's clear that when you are calculating consumption it's decreased by imports. So domestic consumption is clear from imports and you must not decrease imports again. So, in 2Q data a decrease in imports mean an increase in domestic consumption. If you are decreasing imports again while calculating GDP again, a decrease in imports inflate GDP. So, right now we could be talking of recession because of 2 negative quarters. The truth is that for me 2 negative quarters don't need to be translated into a recession in a lot of cases.

Choices:

Undestood

You are wrong

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Answer 1

Do you think my proposed approach to calculate GDP, as well as inflation would somehow address your concerns? This is described in the following article: "Enhancing GDP and Inflation Measurement via SRDB Methodology"

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5913866

Comments

I'm sorry Sir I didn't see your answer before. Later I will check your paper out. Thank you.

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Hello Sir, I read your paper and I think that prediction methodology is good, anyway in spite of the CPI mesurement each 15 days and it's relation with the 31 days GDP measurement, the prediction can be mainly used when calculating invesment in the GDP measurement. I don't completely know the BEA methodology when calculating all accounts, but if there is necessary a statistical approach in some of them like investment the reduction or increase in GDP mesurement would be around 0.4 percent of total GDP measure. In my opinion for prediction this is a good improvement but I don't find any big problem or great achievement in calculating GDP each 31 days. Maybe the CPI should be calculated 2 times instead of one if the BLS calculate it at day 15.